danalwyn

A lot has happened in Libya in the past few weeks, culminating with this weekend's push into Tripoli. A lot that seemed clear a month ago is no longer clear, and a lot that seemed impossible is no longer impossible.

If there's anything that should be clear from the Libya situation, it's that military affairs, social affairs, and economic affairs take time, where pundits take none. When the loyalists were on the verge of taking Benghazi, everyone was frightened that the end of the world would happen right there and then, that the war was lost for the rebels. This was part of what pushed the strong NATO intervention. When that intervention failed to win the war for the rebels in the first week, the words quagmire and "no end in sight" were tossed around. As the stalemate continued, that perspective gained strength, until the whole western intervention looked like just another bungled disaster. Now the interventionists are basking in their glory, and gloating to their more pessimistic colleagues.

Many people predicted the same thing - the war would be won for the rebels if they could figure out how to operate effectively and cohesively in the west against Gaddafi's greater firepower. They also predicted that, despite contrary appearances, international isolation was hurting Gaddafi's regime. Both those predictions appear true, as the rapid folding of regime forces has indicated. But it took time. Not that it took a long time - for a civil war to last only months is remarkably short, even in the age of motor transportation. All complicated affairs, and wars most of all, take time. For all we know, the rebels will suffer another reverse and be driven out of the city (although that looks unlikely).

That's probably the most important lesson we can learn about whatever happens in Tripoli today (the situation is still not clear), these things take time. Wars are not ended in days, effects are not instantaneous. If it takes half a year for a popular rebellion across an oppressed country to seize the capital of a hated and outdated leader, imagine how long it takes for a foreign country to occupy another and then try and change its entire political and social structure.

Oh, and the other thing to learn - people can take care of themselves if you give them the chance.

More Libya, because that's what I'm watching these days.

Looks like the war in Libya has finally started in earnest. No sooner had I sat down to pen about how things really did not seem to be starting (leading to some puzzled head-scratching on the behalf of international observers) and things kick off. Supporters of Gaddafi (whom I shall refer to as loyalists) have finally launched a massive attack on Ras Lunaf, apparently driving the rebels from the city (I refer to them as rebels because I find opposition members to be too unwieldy; we need a better word for that). This could signal the start of a major shift in the war in Libya, or it could be the last gasp of Gaddafi's loyalists in the face of popular revolt. One thing is pretty sure, in ten years or so we'll all be sitting around saying, “Oh yes, it should have been obvious that things would turn out this way”. Of course, it isn't. It never is.

( What Next? )

With Libya's government actually shooting at people, there have been some questions about whether the US should do something about it. Certainly a great many people on twitter and other social media sites are asking where the rest of the world is.

Libya still a pariah state; nobody really considers Libya their bestest friend. Nobody's going to bat for him. And Gaddafi is bombing the protesters from the air and bombarding them from sea; in any nation in the scope of Europe that would be unacceptable. It's an atrocity. It's something that people all over the world that they wish they could stop.

So, can the US do something about it? Short answer, yes:

( Cut for Meandering )

So why hasn't the US done anything about it yet? Well, I don't know, but I have a few ideas:

( Speculation )

Are these good reasons? I don't know. I'm wary of using US military power directly in another country's affairs, even for a good cause. But these are options we should keep on the table if things deteriorate further - you can bet others will be thinking about them too.

Apparently Mubarak didn't get the memo about resigning. The army may not be happy. The crowd is downright incensed.

Either the army decided to throw in with the regime, and Mubarak is pushing the crowd to provoke the army and give him an excuse to crack down, or he's got something else to fall back upon. Or he's totally out of touch.

He might think that he can hold out. After all, protests can't go on forever. But the protests can also push him out directly, especially if the army gets tired of Mubarak. Maybe he's hoping that the crowd will get violent and push the military onto his side. Maybe he's just completely out of touch.

And why did the military and the state television appear to desert him? Is it possible that there is now a schism between the NDP leadership and Mubarak? Is Mubarak hanging on against attempts by his own side to oust him. Is this a massive NDP game to position themselves as the "good guys", acting to push out the man who made them what they are, and thus guaranteeing themselves a place in the future of Egypt? Is this Mubarak betting that foreign nations will back him if he starts cracking down, if he even has that power? Is he hoping to drive some of the protesters to violence and split them in two parts?

I don't know. I can't read his mind. But nobody's going to be sleeping in the tactical office tonight. Get ready for a storm tomorrow.

Mubarak isn't stupid, he can think as well as any news correspondent. One of the things people have commented about has been the difference between Tunisia and Iran's "Green Revolution". The main difference people could come up with was that the Iranian regime really did have a large base. Not a majority perhaps, but enough to put their own crowds on the street and to provide them with muscle.

Well, Mubarak's got his crowd on the street now. My guess is that it's not so much a "crowd", but a collection of police and security officers, the core force that Mubarak has used to suppress dissent. al-Jazeera has several cameras on the action, which is mostly limited at this point to the hurling of rocks and other impromptu projectiles, but appears to be escalating with the fall of night.

The pro-Mubarak side came prepared and armed for bear. They look like they brought with them at least three two-and-a-half ton 6x6 trucks, possibly from army stock, which they are using as a rolling defensive line, giving them a moving barricade to shield their lead ranks from rocks, and some additional horsepower to run down barricades. It looks like they've taken the 6th October Bridge, and are trying to push their way into Tahrir Square from the north, going down the Meret Basha. It's a major approach, and the western side of the road is anchored on the Egyptian Museum, currently occupied by the Egyptian Army, so neither side can go around the flank. They've also taken the intelligent step of seizing the rooftops along the eastern edge of the street, giving them a platform to rain projectiles down on the anti-government protesters who still hold the square.

Meanwhile, the army seems disinclined to get in the middle of this. To me it looks like they're waiting to see what happens. And it looks like the Molotov Cocktails are starting.

( Cut For Amateur Musings Because I'm Sure Nobody Else Cares )

Two hours until showtime in Egypt, and I'm cursing the fact that I have to go to bed. Then again, by this time tomorrow Egypt might have a new future. That wouldn't be such a bad thing to wake up to.

Mubarak has one card he hasn't played yet, the support of the Air Force. Even if the Army stays neutral, the Air Force might not, but it's not clear whether he can play this card, what this card is worth, and if it's even his to play. It's also the one thing that might force the US to take an active hand in things. My gut feeling is that he's not going to play it, but that may just be wishful thinking.

Whatever happens next, it's become clear that the next day is probably crucial. If he can tough that out without budging then he might be able to haggle his way into a transition government. If not, he may just be toast. Good riddance.

Everyone is now confirming that the government of Tunisia has fallen, and that the President has attempted to flee the country (whether successfully or unsuccessfully is not yet reasonably confirmed; the French will know soon). Nobody seems to know who's going to be in charge once the dust settles, but bets seemed to be split between a democratic revolution imposing an electable government, or a military coup.

If the protesters can hold on for a few days, then the first major political game change of 2011 may be "up". Hopefully they can keep it moving. The world can use some good news.