danalwyn

So now the post-Brexit stuff is going down. It's still very murky and unclear and about the only thing I can see a consensus on is that Cameron is a terrible politician. I mean, really. This is the second referendum he's mismanaged, and he can't even keep his own party in check. They may deserve their just desserts. The rest of the UK probably doesn't.

Presuming that Brexit doesn't simply die in committee or get set on fire or spontaneously combust in a second "Are-you-really-sure" referendum, the situation has become interesting to watch - from a distance. Things that were unthinkable a few weeks ago are now not only thinkable, but possible. That should worry the hell out of a lot of people, although everything is so far off that there's no point in worrying now. Still, for the sake of speculation, here's some ideas that have come up, which are fascinating in the 'unfolding trainwreck' way of things:

1) The Dissolution of the United Kingdom: One big argument for Scotland staying with the UK is that it would remain part of the EU (a new nation would not get that effect). But if the UK leaves, Scotland might choose to stay behind. That seems a reasonable outcome. Additionally, Northern Ireland is economically dependent on an open border with the Republic of Ireland. The Unification of Ireland would be interesting (and would hand an unprepared Republic of Ireland a smoldering fuse to put out). Wales might also do a bit better out of the UK, although it's unclear whether they'll make the jump.

2) The Disposition of the Expats: There are always a surprising number of British expats looking to spend their days in more southern and sunnier climes, often under the auspices of post-Schengen open border agreements. What happens to them post-Brexit? If the EU is feeling mean, they'll say that British citizens no longer have the right to live in Europe without a lot more paperwork, but the houses have to be taxed anyway. It's a good way to make some money for the countries involved, and it's not like the situation vis-a-vis Britain could be much worse.

3) The Free City of London: While we're carving up the British Empire, let's take it's most valuable part. London was definitely on the Remain side of the ledger. Its multi-ethnic, multi-cultural nature, its immigrant past, and the ties of its main financial industries to international markets make it a perfect candidate to be in the EU. If the departure descends into plebiscite hell, it would be interesting to see if London makes a break for city-state status. Southeastern England wouldn't be a huge country, but it would be bigger and richer than some similarly sized nations, like Austria. This is a catastrophic idea, but the fact that people are talking about it even in jest is an "interesting" development (as in the Chinese curse).

4) Learning to spell things without a u: The UK is no longer the world power it was last week. One of the UK's natural strengths was in its position in a series of alliances. Now its ties with the rest of Europe seem in tatters. The UK isn't on that good of speaking terms with most of its former (non-white) colonies. The only thing left to them is their "Special Relationship" with the US - which just got a lot less special because there's a lot less they can offer. This may look a lot more like a client relationship than an alliance if the UK can't recover some European ground, just due to the hostile climate they have created locally and the dependence that fosters on her remaining friends. That's okay. The US is always willing to step up. We'll soon teach the British not to stick 'u' in every possible word, and not to use words like 'lorry' that aren't in real English (American English), and how to provide soldiers for American interventions. Hey, maybe you'll even get to become a US state once London is gone!


Overall though, there are a few years left to shape this conversation. Don't worry about the catastrophes. The damage can still be contained. Or reversed. Or we get a do-over. This isn't just politics, this is history and history is never over.

It wasn't exactly a peaceful 2012, and 2013 doesn't look a whole lot better. Oh, that Afghanistan thing is still going on, but in other parts of the world there's a whole lot of other civil conflict that looks like it could spill over across borders and into the international playing field at any moment.

So here is a quick list of all the powder kegs currently burning today.

( Who's shooting at who )

A lot of computer people have long suspected that anti-virus software was essentially a kind of elaborate scam, not just the pop-up window viruses that promise you 'virus protection' after they've infected your computer, but the kind of anti-virus programs that they sell in reputable stores. Even when they work, they're essentially attempts to fix problems they already know about, when your biggest problem is ones that you don't.

So it comes as no surprise that John McAfee, creator of the company that is probably second- or third-most likely to install their software alongside something entirely unrelated, is a bit of a snake oil salesman in real life. But we were surprised to find out from Gizmodo that McAfee has entered a lifestyle involving 17-year old girlfriends, an arsenal of guns, and a descent full-blown paranoia.

That was then, of course, November 8th. Now the neighbor that McAfee had disputes with, American expatriate Gregory Faull, is dead. McAfee himself, wanted for questioning regarding the incident, is on the run.

The affair has turned into a full-blown internet sensation. McAfee is making regular phone calls to Wired reporter Joshua Davis, claiming that he is now in disguise, and is evading the police. He's already compared the rounding up of his various employees for questioning to Stalin's detentions, has claimed the police are out to kill him, and is presumably doing some wacky stunt right now, probably involving driving an ATV off a cliff. What's drawn people here is not so much the celebrity factor, but the continual amount of crazy that McAfee continues to deliver live through the internet.

If this was the US, this would be pretty cut and dry. The kind of person who has to give live updates on his escape on twitter is not the kind who can stay out of police sight for long. If he managed to escape here he would rightly raise all manner of conspiracy theories. But McAfee has been living in Belize, that small country in South America that doesn't quite fit in.

( No Conspiracy Theories Necessary )

In response to mounting tensions along the Turkish-Syrian border, Turkey is moving more military forces to the border with Syria, including deploying fighters from an air base near Batman, capital of Turkey's Batman province.

...

If it wasn't for the fact that nobody cares about Syria anymore, this would be the most amusing geographic challenge that the news media would face all year.

(Bonus points to the first conspiracy nut who claims that the whole Syria thing is just a publicity stunt for The Dark Knight Rises).

2011 Headcount - including the late Dear Leader:

• Than Shwe (Burma): retired (maybe)


• Ben Ali (Tunisia): deposed


• Hosni Mubarak (Egypt): arrested


• Fidel Castro (Cuba): retired (medical)


• Muammar Gaddafi (Libya): killed while resisting revolution


• Kim Jong-Il (North Korea): heart attack

Is it just me, or am I beginning to run out of people to make fun of?

News Summary Time:

I've been avoiding the Middle East like the plague ever since it became impossible to get anything concrete out of it, but there's a bunch of other things (some outdated since it took me so long to write this) that have been running around the headlines. So here they are:

( But First, Here's Johnny With the News )

There are a lot of things I should be writing about. I'm not writing about any of them now.

Instead, courtesy of Tyler Cowen, I bring you one of the most WTF-inducing sentences to ever start a news article:

A German student created a major traffic jam in Bavaria after making a rude gesture at a group of Hell's Angels motorcycle gang members, hurling a puppy at them and then escaping on a stolen bulldozer.

There is no conceivable universe I can think of where this makes any amount of sense whatsoever, yet it continues to sit there in factual smugness. Is it June Fool's Day in Bavaria or something?

What is it about the last two weeks in the news? Has everyone lost their mind all at once?

The Bangkok situation inevitably disintegrates into the worst plausible outcome.
South Korea comes out and says what everybody already knew (also four North Korean subs went off the map the other day; makes the ROK nervous)
Fighting in Mogadishu
Still fighting in the Kivus.
Border fighting between Somaliland and Ethiopia.
Street fighting in Antananarivo.
Complete breakdown of civil order and all-out war in Kingston.
Street fighting in Kyrgyzstan.
The famine in Niger isn't getting better, and now Chad is in on it.
The DRC wants the UN out of their war.
Chad wants the UN out of their war.
South Africa's had to send troops to the Zimbabwe border with less then a month before the World Cup starts.
Yes, there are still Naxalites in India.
More bombings in [insert name of country here]

Basically you could have replaced the news for the past week with "Things Fall Apart". Here's hoping that we're using up all of summer's aggression in May, and that the rest of it will be quiet (except it won't).

Well, whatever it was in Kyrgyzstan, it's over.

We don't know what it was, whether it was a revolution, a revolt, or what. We don't really know who's in charge, irrespective of what people say. All we know is that it was unorganized, it was violent, and mercifully, it was short. We know that so far the main army has declined to mobilize, and that the opposition is disorganized to the extreme, and that nobody knows where to go from here. We can only hope that their future is brighter then their past.

But what we also know is how dangerously restricted Afghanistan has made US Foreign Policy. The US should have dropped all connections with a man like Bakiyev years ago. His cronyism, his corruption, his dictatorial ways read like a list of indictments against his character and his government, and by all rights the US, which has keeps reaffirming its support for democracy, fairness, and rule of law, should have nothing to do with him. If not opposing him, we should at least have the sense to stay the hell away and wait for his regime to go down in flames.

But we can't, because we need Manas Air Base to supply our forces in Afghanistan. So we have to go back to the same bargains we made during the Cold War, cozying up to dictators whose unstable regimes were doomed to eventual collapse and failure, at tremendous cost to their citizens, paying them to oppress their own people in the name of freedom. Except this time instead of doing it to face down a monolithic Soviet Union, complete with massive armies and hordes of nukes, we're doing it to face down a handful of ragged, unwashed yokels living in the mountain country of Afghanistan, who couldn't fill a combat division if they all showed up to work at the same time. The game may be the same, but the rationale is getting harder and harder for the rest of us to swallow.

Kind of glad I'm not British right now; the hand-wringing and whine-fest over Falklands War 2010 is beginning to annoy me, and I'm on the other side of the Atlantic. I can't even imagine the volume that the amateur circuit is exuding on that side of the world. I suppose it's the British equivalent of what last year's Honduras testosterone fest was in the United States, loud, annoying, and ultimately run by people who don't know what they're talking about. The experts are being much more sedate, but what's the fun in listening to people who know what they're talking about?