So, in case you weren't watching, there was a coup this week.
Well, maybe. Maybe not. What's clear is that there's a lot of noise right now
in the Maldives. First President Nasheed resigned in the face of the mass public protests. Then he declared that he had been forced to resign at gunpoint. Then his supporters took to the street. Now the new government has issued a warrant for his arrest, although they kept the grounds for the warrant secret.
Nasheed was thrown out by a public demonstration, which arouses sympathy for the demonstrators. But one of the claims that the demonstrators made was that he was not sufficiently Islamic, which raises suspicions. Also Nasheed's election in 2008 removed from power Asia's longest serving head of state, who is still active in politics, and may be manipulating events. But Nasheed's also given to a bit of grandstanding, being the first head of state to hold an underwater cabinet meeting (if sea levels rise about one meter, the Maldives will become a memory). Maybe people really did get tired of him. Maybe he did refuse to call the army out against the police. Maybe he's scheming something now. We don't know.
Now people should be
doing something about it. Either a democratic leader was overthrown, or a leader was overthrown by democracy. Many countries have nationals there. Many countries have economic interests there. Diplomats should be busy. Trade ministers should be busy. In anticipation of violence, militaries should be at least planning to be busy.
But nobody's really busy right now. And it's not just indecision over what actually happened. The world's democracies just have not figured out how to deal with a coup - justified or not. Condone? Condemn? Ignore? Isolate? Engage? A lot of words get thrown around, but a basic fact remains - the world's democracies don't know what to do about the collapse of a government. And until they figure that out, there won't be any kind of unified response to anything. Which means a continuation of the status quo, where every country tries to play things to their own advantage and usually manages to make things worse.
Which is what we do every time, because none of us really wants to sit down and figure out what we should do ahead of time.