(no subject)
May. 13th, 2009 11:11 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
danalwynThe Sri Lankan Army continues to attack the last stronghold of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) today, and nobody knows why.The LTTE, which once controlled basically all of northern Sri Lanka and massed an army of probably around 20,000 effectives, are now constrained to a square mile of territory in the northeastern part of the island, caught between the ocean on one side, and the Sri Lankan Army in three other directions. With the remaining hundreds of fighters are thousands of civilians, who either fled the Sri Lankan Army, or were forced to move by the LTTE, and are currently caught in the cross-fire.
It is unclear what the SLA thinks they'll gain by this. Continual attacks will eventually lead to the downfall of the remaining LTTE fighters, but with their backs to the wall, many of them will fight to the death, leading to even bloodier moments as the SLA continues to push forward. Most of the LTTE will eventually end up being captured, at which point the government of Sri Lanka will jail them, meaning that they will confine them to a very small area and prevent them from leaving, such as a square mile of territory in northeastern Sri Lanka. The LTTE has already imprisoned themselves; you might as well just start building walls around them and keeping them in. It is unclear why the lives of SLA soldiers must continue to be spent when the LTTE will fall to a bloodless siege just as well. Even if the SLA lets food and aid shipments through, eventually the continual irrelevance will result in the LTTE dissolving. Continually launching direct attacks on the enclave will not win them anything special.
More to the point, the government of Sri Lanka needs the goodwill, or at least the acceptance, of the Tamil people. If they are to prevent a re-occurrence of this whole war, they need to keep the Tamils content to be part of Sri Lanka, and hitting civilian populations with artillery attacks is not going to win them any favors. They need to be seen as the beneficent party in this affair, to take advantage of the LTTE's blackening of their own name. Barring the LTTE in, and letting the doctors and aid workers do their work would cost them nothing militarily, and win them a lot politically.
All in all, it's painful to see what has been a competently executed campaign against an insurgent force that got too confident be thrown away in a last moment attempt to win that last bit of glory by "conquering" the LTTE. That runs the risk of throwing the fruit of two years of warfare away by souring the whole region until they rise in the next revolt.
It is unclear what the SLA thinks they'll gain by this. Continual attacks will eventually lead to the downfall of the remaining LTTE fighters, but with their backs to the wall, many of them will fight to the death, leading to even bloodier moments as the SLA continues to push forward. Most of the LTTE will eventually end up being captured, at which point the government of Sri Lanka will jail them, meaning that they will confine them to a very small area and prevent them from leaving, such as a square mile of territory in northeastern Sri Lanka. The LTTE has already imprisoned themselves; you might as well just start building walls around them and keeping them in. It is unclear why the lives of SLA soldiers must continue to be spent when the LTTE will fall to a bloodless siege just as well. Even if the SLA lets food and aid shipments through, eventually the continual irrelevance will result in the LTTE dissolving. Continually launching direct attacks on the enclave will not win them anything special.
More to the point, the government of Sri Lanka needs the goodwill, or at least the acceptance, of the Tamil people. If they are to prevent a re-occurrence of this whole war, they need to keep the Tamils content to be part of Sri Lanka, and hitting civilian populations with artillery attacks is not going to win them any favors. They need to be seen as the beneficent party in this affair, to take advantage of the LTTE's blackening of their own name. Barring the LTTE in, and letting the doctors and aid workers do their work would cost them nothing militarily, and win them a lot politically.
All in all, it's painful to see what has been a competently executed campaign against an insurgent force that got too confident be thrown away in a last moment attempt to win that last bit of glory by "conquering" the LTTE. That runs the risk of throwing the fruit of two years of warfare away by souring the whole region until they rise in the next revolt.
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
(no subject)
Date: 2009-05-13 07:50 pm (UTC)I knew nothing about Sri Lanka before this job in January. I'm still trying to wrap my head around everything. Meanwhile, I send lots of faxes to Obama and Clinton.
In conflicts like this, it seems like there are no good guys left.
(no subject)
Date: 2009-05-13 09:46 pm (UTC)I can understand why there are no good guys; war is a dirty, ugly business. I may be disappointed in that, but I at least can understand it and hope that it will change. But to be a bad guy even when it's against your best interest? Now that I have real problems understanding.