danalwyn: (Default)
[personal profile] danalwyn
From Dictionary.com

surge noun, verb, surged, surg·ing.
–noun

1. a strong, wavelike, forward movement, rush, or sweep: the onward surge of an angry mob.
2. a strong, swelling, wavelike volume or body of something: a billowing surge of smoke.
3. a last ditch, desparate plan that nobody, not even the generals, wants, to postpone the necessity of adopting a reasonable strategy in Iraq until after January of 2009.



Things that were said today:

Dubya said: We have 21,500 extra troops to send to Iraq.

Dubya means: Well, actually we don't. We just have a lot of people who won the army lottery and received a free, all-expenses paid, six month vacation to Iraq. And it's mandatory. But don't worry. They're patriotic. They'll be happy to go.

---

Dubya said: Anbar Province is a mess

Dubya means: I just cleaned off my desk and found this report on this Anbar place. Maybe we should do something about it.

---

Dubya said: The Iraqi Army will deploy 18 brigades to Baghdad to clean up the city.

Dubya means: I couldn't find any Iraqi units either, but I managed to bribe persuade the leaders of the Peshmurga militia Kurdish provinces to bring their bullyboys troops down to help control of Baghdad.

---

Dubya said: Iraqi Army units will cooperate with local police.

Dubya means: That should allow them to quickly find members of groups participating in formenting violence. Hint: They're wearing police uniforms.

---

Dubya said: This time, we will hold areas after we clear them.

Dubya means: Until we get bored, that is. Or run out of troops. Whatever comes first.

---

Dubya said: We will help Iraq build a larger and better-equipped army.

Dubya means: We will give the Iraqis lots of guns, and some training manuals in English. We will then turn them lose on the world and hope that they don't get into too much trouble.

---

Dubya said: All insurrgent and sectarian groups will be targeted in this operation.

Dubya means: Well, except for the ones who are part of the Iraqi government. And the ones who own the Iraqi government. But we can forget about those.

---

Dubya said: We will prevent Iran and Syria from smuggling equipment to Iraqi insurrgents.

Dubya means: The same way we keep the illegal immigrants out.

---

Dubya said: We have the support of several important Arab nations.

Dubya means: All of whom just happen to be Sunni, and want us to put either the Baathists or al-Qaeda in power.

---

Dubya said: Millions of people are sick of the violence.

Dubya means: Many of them live in the US.

---

Dubya said: Victory in Iraq will bring a new way of life to the Middle East

Dubya means: We call it the "Somalia" look.

---

Dubya said: We will start a new bipartisan group to examine options in the War on Terror.

Dubya means: We've already told them what their conclusions will be.

---

Dubya said: Iraq will take control of all of its provinces in November.

Dubya means: I open my mouth and sometimes words come out. Sometime they are assembled in the form of correct sentences. This does not imply any significance to them.

---

Dubya said: We will come up with a plan to win in Iraq.

Dubya means: We will come up with a totally unworkable plan that will not go into effect until 2009, so I can spend the rest of my life claiming that the rest of you fucked up my brilliance, while savoring the adoration of my loving apostles. Suck on that, John McCain!



(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 04:36 am (UTC)
ext_25882: (Eclipse)
From: [identity profile] nightdog-barks.livejournal.com
Thank you, thank you, thank you, [livejournal.com profile] danalwyn.

I could not watch tonight. Whenever I hear anyone from this Administration speak, I get the feeling that we have always been at war with East Asia.*


*Mr. Orwell knew.

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 04:54 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danalwyn.livejournal.com
We have never been at war with Eastasia. We have always been at war with Eurasia. Apparently you have allowed terrorist elements to influence your memory of history.

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 05:07 am (UTC)
ext_25882: (Roman Cavalry Mask Kalkriese)
From: [identity profile] nightdog-barks.livejournal.com
*grins*

You're so right. Either that or I'm channeling the Roman Empire again.

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 05:26 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danalwyn.livejournal.com
Warning: Doubleplus ungood crimethink!

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 06:14 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ithmarvin.livejournal.com
I can't help but wonder how the hell things got so bad over there and why so many troops are getting needlessly killed. After all, they told us that this war would be 'easy' and that it would only take weeks.

Or is the U.S. trying to recreate the Titanic incident?

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 06:19 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danalwyn.livejournal.com
Incompetence is a good explanation for a great many things that should not have happened.

To be honest, the US policy after Vietnam was not "We should learn from Vietnam", but rather "We sure as hell shouldn't do that again". Unfortunately, when a president decided to do it again, it didn't turn out very well for us.

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 01:39 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] madra-liath.livejournal.com
I get all my info on Iraq from Get Your War On, these days. At least then I can laugh instead of bang my head on the wall.

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 03:07 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danalwyn.livejournal.com
I don't think there is a good place to get news from Iraq because everything is so fragmented. I spend days searching the internet for some realistic overall appraisal, but nobody can offer one, because the country is basically a bunch of little rafts floating in a sea of chaos.

I'm considering abandoning any and all interest in that country and worrying about Somalia instead.

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 05:21 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] silverjackal.livejournal.com
*boggles*

I missed this on the news due to work. Thank you for both relaying it and decoding the politico-speak. The big question in my mind is always "does it matter what anyone does in Iraq these days?". Irregardless of responsibility, there's no single power -- external or internal -- that can hold matters together. I've given up paying close attention, because it's just upsetting. Ditto Somalia.

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 05:38 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danalwyn.livejournal.com
As always, there's the possibility that an Iraqi George Washington (or Bismark if you prefer) could emerge from the crowd and find a way to unite his country. There are some potential candidates, most of whom I personally dislike, but there's always the chance that someone will get it done. A strong personality in the right place can take care of anything.

To be honest, we could "win" in Iraq, but only through a Herculean effort. And the United States does not want to make that effort, and quite frankly, I don't blame us for that attitude.

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 06:52 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] silverjackal.livejournal.com
A strong personality in the right place can take care of anything.

Provided that individual isn't promptly assassinated by another faction interested in preserving their own power base. Perhaps I'm being overly cynical, but I don't see that there is any "win" possible for anyone in Iraq other than those who feed off fanaticism and chaos.

To be honest, we could "win" in Iraq, but only through a Herculean effort.

How, though? I mean in the long term, not in the short. Certainly, the chaos could be brought to an end and the country stabilized. Then what? The minute the iron fist of outside intervenyion was removed the choas would spring up again in a dozen places, like dust devils in the desert. If the U.S. established some sort of protectorate there, and governed the country themselves for a couple of generations, then perhaps... but at what cost? And not just in terms of the expenditure of American and Iraqi lives, and vast amounts of money, but also at the expense of U. S. relations on the world stage in places not directly connected to the middle East...

It still astonishes me that the U.S. administration apparently didn't know what wind they were whistling up when the first waded into a conflict in that region. And now the world at large reaps the whirlwind.

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 06:53 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] silverjackal.livejournal.com
*growls*. Intervention. My apologies. I'm so fumble fingered at the moment that my attempts at correcting typos go awry.

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-11 11:58 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danalwyn.livejournal.com
The situation is bad in Iraq, but not any worse than in China in the age of warlords, or Civil War Russia. In both cases someone was able to pull something out of the ashes. Now, we might not like the something, but they clearly count that as a "win". If this level of chaos doomed a nation to eternal strife, we would still be trying to invent the wheel.


I still do believe that a long enough period of stability and prosperity can cause factions to lose their power. The problem is going to be time. And the effort is described as Herculean for a reason.

If you want to win in Iraq, here's my plan:

1) Deploy an additional ten million troops to Iraq. This will give you a ratio of approximately one soldier per two Iraqis. Use this force to disarm Iraqis, set up guard posts on every street corner, and effectively secure most urban locales. Control explosives purchases, and constantly monitor likely bombing targets. To reduce car bombs, forbid non-public vehicles from all streets. Because this will effectively shut down the economy without massive support, you will have to provide a fleet of free buses, operated by Americans.

2) Once the country is disarmed, slowly begin to allow the government to get its power back. Over the next thirty years, reduce the occupation to five million troops. However, continue to vigorously prosecute corruption crimes.

3) Over the course of the next seventy years, give Iraqis more control over their lives. First re-instate local governments in full, and then state governments. During this period, it's vital to keep most of the power in the hands of the secular urban core (this is Iraq after all). Expect protests to continue, and occasionally give in to demands, slowly relinquishing the hold.

4) During the next century, slowly reduce troop levels to the current value under pressure from the Iraqi government. This sort of slow withdrawal will be met with frequent public protest, but it may be possible to keep it under control if you establish a full timeline. The idea here is to make sure that, by the time a trouble spot is freed and a revolutionary can instigate trouble, his compatriots in other towns will have been freed for decades, and will be too busy working to stir up trouble.

5) Complete withdrawal, and hope the government can stand on its own. You've had two centuries to break down most of the authority structures that can stand up in opposition, and also to shift the country's demographics to avoid trouble. After the next century, when you may have to intervene once or twice, things may be good. Or perhaps not.

This is entirely speculative. The genocide option is certainly much easier, even though it's detestable on all levels.

Like I said, the effort is Herculean, and I was not using hyperbole when I stated that.

(no subject)

Date: 2007-01-12 12:51 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] silverjackal.livejournal.com
Like I said, the effort is Herculean, and I was not using hyperbole when I stated that.

No, no, I understood. You've just thought out my "protectorate for at least two generations" conclusion in far better detail.

Profile

danalwyn: (Default)
danalwyn

November 2017

S M T W T F S
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
192021 22232425
2627282930  

Most Popular Tags

Style Credit

Expand Cut Tags

No cut tags