Rumor-Mill working overtime
Oct. 24th, 2006 09:34 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
danalwynThere's been a rumor that's been raised a few places in recent days. I sometimes hear it rumbling in the distance when I'm paying attention to other things. Nobody believes it, or believes that it is seriously an option. Every expert I've heard recently says that it is a bad idea, but it's still floating out there somewhere.
Namely that there may be a coup to remove Prime Minister Maliki from office, and install a more authoritarian strongman in Baghdad.
This is, of course, a bad idea. From an American perspective it not only undermines our only credible reason for being there, but it also creates the problem that we had in the first place - namely a dictator with no civilian control in charge of the country. The State Department must hate this idea, the military probably doesn't like it, and even some of the neoconservatives are probably eying it uneasily. Unfortunately, to the average Iraqi it may not look that bad. Democracy may be a good idea, but many Iraqis might tolerate another Saddam just to end the downward spiral of chaos that dominates the country. It's all very well to talk about natural and fundamental rights, but I might trade a great many of them to keep my family safe.
Right now, very few of the major players in Iraq want to see the country dissolve into chaos. Unfortunately, there's nothing at the center holding it together. A dictator might be able to do that, or the five man ruling junta that's been bandied about.
Neither of these are a good idea. Not only do they lead to the promise of continual instability, as governments that rise in a coup tend to fall in one, but they also make a mockery out of the sacrifice of American lives in that country. What justification can we give for sending men to die to raise a new totalitarian regime in the Middle East?
Of course, nobody is really taking these rumors seriously. A coup cannot proceed without more organization than they have and US sanction. Nobody in Washington seems to be seriously considering the action. But the rumors won't die, and right away that says a great deal about the situation. It's the trap of Saigon all over again, and we're stuck in it with no good way out.
Either that or Dubya is very smart, and very canny, and that thought scares me more than all my other thoughts put together.
Namely that there may be a coup to remove Prime Minister Maliki from office, and install a more authoritarian strongman in Baghdad.
This is, of course, a bad idea. From an American perspective it not only undermines our only credible reason for being there, but it also creates the problem that we had in the first place - namely a dictator with no civilian control in charge of the country. The State Department must hate this idea, the military probably doesn't like it, and even some of the neoconservatives are probably eying it uneasily. Unfortunately, to the average Iraqi it may not look that bad. Democracy may be a good idea, but many Iraqis might tolerate another Saddam just to end the downward spiral of chaos that dominates the country. It's all very well to talk about natural and fundamental rights, but I might trade a great many of them to keep my family safe.
Right now, very few of the major players in Iraq want to see the country dissolve into chaos. Unfortunately, there's nothing at the center holding it together. A dictator might be able to do that, or the five man ruling junta that's been bandied about.
Neither of these are a good idea. Not only do they lead to the promise of continual instability, as governments that rise in a coup tend to fall in one, but they also make a mockery out of the sacrifice of American lives in that country. What justification can we give for sending men to die to raise a new totalitarian regime in the Middle East?
Of course, nobody is really taking these rumors seriously. A coup cannot proceed without more organization than they have and US sanction. Nobody in Washington seems to be seriously considering the action. But the rumors won't die, and right away that says a great deal about the situation. It's the trap of Saigon all over again, and we're stuck in it with no good way out.
Either that or Dubya is very smart, and very canny, and that thought scares me more than all my other thoughts put together.