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Somalia vs. Ethiopia
Dec. 27th, 2006 08:45 amI will now make a prediction that nobody else cares about. I don't often predict the future, but every once in a while I'm tempted to try out my clairvoyance, so here it goes:
1) Ethiopian troops, "supported" by pro-government militia troops will manage to advance probably to the streets of Mogadishu, and possibly even occupy a fair portion of the city. However, their advantage in open ground combat against men who are basically urban guerrillas will not work as well in the city. Even occupying the city won't help them, they may end up fighting a guerrilla war for years.
2) The transitional government will prove ineffective at anything more complicated than putting on their pants. It's a mismash of competing factions, supported by a militia that mostly signed up for the opportunity to get rich quick by looting civilians. At this point, the transitional government is tainted by the fact that it's essentially an Ethiopian cats-paw, and will have difficulties retaining the loyalties of its citizens. Given that it can't offend the Ethiopians either, it's in a tricky position.
3) Casualties will continue to remain low. Somalia is approximately the size of Texas, and has a population about the size of North Carolina (or used to, without a government, there is no census). Ethiopia is conquering it with 8,000 troops, and Eritrea is trying to stop them with 2,000 men. With such few men on the ground, military casualties will be light because opposing forces will hit each other in small groups. Most of the damage will be borne by the civilians.
4) The ICU will be in an increasingly difficult position as time goes on. Without the ability to wage a sustained non-guerrilla war, and with only Eritrea in their corner, they will be increasingly dependent on foreign jihadists, in particular those raised by the largest of jihadist organizations, al-Qaeda. As a result, al-Qaeda will gain the dependence of what is currently the only popularly supported organization in the country.
5) The US, not liking al-Qaeda, will continue to quietly back Ethiopia. This seems foolhardy since, a) it lengthens the conflict and generates more jihadists, b) we don't really like Ethiopia anyway, and c) Ethiopia seems to have very little interest in hanging around and running the country. Probably Ethiopia will continue to protect the "capital" at Baidoa, while militias and gangs fight it out in Mogadishu, and the entire country spires into chaos. In the end, Ethiopia will probably get tired and leave.
6) The whole place will be as much of a mess as before.
Now we can wait and see how wrong I was.
1) Ethiopian troops, "supported" by pro-government militia troops will manage to advance probably to the streets of Mogadishu, and possibly even occupy a fair portion of the city. However, their advantage in open ground combat against men who are basically urban guerrillas will not work as well in the city. Even occupying the city won't help them, they may end up fighting a guerrilla war for years.
2) The transitional government will prove ineffective at anything more complicated than putting on their pants. It's a mismash of competing factions, supported by a militia that mostly signed up for the opportunity to get rich quick by looting civilians. At this point, the transitional government is tainted by the fact that it's essentially an Ethiopian cats-paw, and will have difficulties retaining the loyalties of its citizens. Given that it can't offend the Ethiopians either, it's in a tricky position.
3) Casualties will continue to remain low. Somalia is approximately the size of Texas, and has a population about the size of North Carolina (or used to, without a government, there is no census). Ethiopia is conquering it with 8,000 troops, and Eritrea is trying to stop them with 2,000 men. With such few men on the ground, military casualties will be light because opposing forces will hit each other in small groups. Most of the damage will be borne by the civilians.
4) The ICU will be in an increasingly difficult position as time goes on. Without the ability to wage a sustained non-guerrilla war, and with only Eritrea in their corner, they will be increasingly dependent on foreign jihadists, in particular those raised by the largest of jihadist organizations, al-Qaeda. As a result, al-Qaeda will gain the dependence of what is currently the only popularly supported organization in the country.
5) The US, not liking al-Qaeda, will continue to quietly back Ethiopia. This seems foolhardy since, a) it lengthens the conflict and generates more jihadists, b) we don't really like Ethiopia anyway, and c) Ethiopia seems to have very little interest in hanging around and running the country. Probably Ethiopia will continue to protect the "capital" at Baidoa, while militias and gangs fight it out in Mogadishu, and the entire country spires into chaos. In the end, Ethiopia will probably get tired and leave.
6) The whole place will be as much of a mess as before.
Now we can wait and see how wrong I was.