In Which I Am Wrong

[danalwyn]

So I have to admit, I didn't get Crimea right. I was betting on an independent quasi-Abkhazia in place of Crimea, a sort of Russian puppet state, not outright annexation. Annexation is a dangerous step, since it's the first outright annexation of a major territory by a larger country that I can remember since India and Sikkim, and with even less justification. It was peaceful at least, which means that things weren't terrible but it doesn't exactly set a good precedent for an uncertain future.

Not that this is necessarily bad for the West, or even for Ukraine, but it's certainly not a good thing. A return to land-grabbing power politics could make the next few years very interesting for Central Asia, where the borders aren't very clear, although in the end it probably sows the seeds of people's destruction. It's just not going to make this next year any more comfortable.

Comments

[silverjackal]

I was actually expecting annexation -- Russian politics have been trending towards their older aggressive style for quite some time. One can only hope that things in that part of the globe do not go horrifically sideways. Making light of the situation have you seen the Customs Entry Macro about the subject?

[danalwyn]

Heh.

But I was still betting on Abkhazia-style puppeteering over actual annexation. That makes it the first annexation in a very, very long time, and leads to all kinds of diplomatic and political consequences that are bad for Russia. Of course it won't lead to an invasion of Russia, so maybe Putin gets off leaving the diplomatic consequences as what he has to suffer.

[avendya]

I am confused by how Putin is playing this one. I don't see how this is more advantageous to Russia than informal rule like South Ossetia/Abkhazia, especially since Crimea was quite independent from Kiev before annexation. It doesn't seem like it would be worth the sanctions...

[danalwyn]

They must be betting on a permanent advantage to come out of this in the face of temporary diplomatic problems. It's more likely to make enemies out of neighbors for Putin, but maybe he needs neighbors to justify his rule.