Time to be all Thinky

[danalwyn]

So, to ring in the new year, here's a little food for thought.

One of the questions a lot of people have asked themselves over the past few years is why violent crime, which in America reached "epidemic" levels in the 90s and terrorized our inner cities, has had such a stunning reversal. What happened? More police? Tougher laws? A better economy? Gentrification? Solar flares?

At Mother Jones, Kevin Drum thinks he has a partial explanation, levels of lead in gasoline.



It may not be the true explanation, but it's actually fairly compelling. Which means, hopefully, that levels of crime will continue to stay low. So there's some good news to start your year.

Comments

[silverjackal]

I was linked to that article independently. It's an interesting idea, but it could be correlation of some sort (i.e. with a different underpinning we're not aware of) versus causation. Still, whatever the cause, the fact that violent crime is declining is nothing but good.

[danalwyn]

It did get all over the internet somehow.

It's a very practical and very well-correlated result, or at least about as much as I would expect given the random backgrounds of the social sciences. Not saying that it's correct necessarily, but it's a lot harder to disprove than the explanations various mayors, interest groups, and political figures have given us. It's just interesting to me how long it takes the effects of what we do to be understood (if we ever do)