2006 Begins
Jan. 5th, 2006 07:18 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
danalwynSo this is 2006. I must say that I'm not that impressed with it. It may be off to a better start than 2005, but not by much.
BBC announced that Ariel Sharon will be kept under sedation for seventy-two hours to hopefully aid in his recovery. Either that, or the Israelis are trying to keep the lid from blowing off all at once, in the hope that a slow release of pressure will serve them better. Whichever way the cards are being played, it's clear that there may be some rocky times ahead for the Mideast. Again.
The problems we're probably going to see in short order are going to depend a lot on who is on top when the cards finish coming to ground. Sharon held a unique position; he was one of the few Israeli leaders who could show a lot of strength to the charges of being soft on the Palestinians due to his war record. This has always been one of the big problems with the Mideast peace process, just like the Palestinians are willing to abandon any leader that they see kowtowing to Israel, the Israeli right is loath to support someone who seems to be giving away their land to hostile foreigners. Even with religion kept out of it, the Israelis and the Palestinians have more than enough reason to hate each other for several more decades. His successor may have to demonstrate his firmness to the Israeli people to maintain the momentum of the peace process, and that means reprisals for Palestinian raids at an increased level.
Of course, this isn't set in stone. Not be a long shot. But a lot of worry is circulating that whoever follows Sharon may have to demonstrate his political strength, and his willingness to defend Israeli territory, by showing that he's tough on the Palestinians. This could mean anything up to enlarging the settlement area in the West Bank, a subject already so politically hot that it's burned everyone who has touched it. The other problem is that Sharon's departure, if it happens, could lead to a power vacuum at a very bad time.
It's no secret that the experiment in Gaza is hovering on the edge of disaster. The Fatah party didn't exactly do very well, probably because it was the remains of a guerrilla organization that had degenerated into gangsterism, instead of a true political party. Now it's quagmired in its own inefficiency, it's infighting, and it's lack of purpose. The trouble is that the opposition is united. The other trouble is that the opposition, mainly Hamas, has only one platform, namely to become the leading political power in Gaza. There's no evidence that Hamas has much more of a realistic plan for rebuilding their new nation than Fatah does, and a lot of indication that they will throw the Gaza strip away in order to launch a few more rockets at Israel. Hopefully they have more control over themselves, but they either do not know or do not care that their people have a lot to lose by their actions. Both sides seem intent upon stomping the economic life of Gaza into nothingness.
The one good piece of news of the peace process has been that both sides appear to have accepted that the other side will continue to exist. This used to be a major barrier. The Palestinians used to seem to have an opinion that the Israelis were total western puppets, and that if their life was made hard enough they would return to the other Jewish homeland that they had come from. The Israelis tended to see Palestinians as the same as all Arabs, if they were dispersed enough sooner or later they would go to the other Arab countries and be welcomed there. Neither side is about to budge. Fortunately, it looks like both sides have accepted that co-existence of some sort is their only option.
On the Palestinian side the problem will be what happens if they get a new state in the West Bank as well. It's become painfully clear that nobody has been able to sideline the power of the militias to build a new Palestinian government. And this is the source of trouble. Any Israeli PM has to take an enormous risk by allowing a Palestinian nation to crop up on their borders. They need to show their people that such a situation is advantageous, that it cuts down on the number of attacks. To do that, they will need the Palestinian people to police their own ranks, and keep their militants in check. Whoever inherits the Palestinian mantle must both build a nation from economic nothingness, and keep their own militants from provoking the Israelis into either reconquering the territory, or launching massive retaliation that will essentially impoverish or destroy the Palestinian people.
The Israeli side is just as murky. Whoever runs the show will have to be able to force their people to see that the long term benefit of independent Palestine will overshadow the short-term effects of instability. At the same time they will have to keep the Palestinians contained, without looking like he's containing them. It's a lot of trouble from both sides. He will have to move towards peace, without looking soft, a balancing act that is never easy to perform. He can rest assured that Israel holds all the cards in this high-stakes game, but it may not be enough.
Like him or hate him, Ariel Sharon might have had the willpower to pull that off. If he does exit the public spotlight, it remains to be seen whether his successor will have the same mettle.
BBC announced that Ariel Sharon will be kept under sedation for seventy-two hours to hopefully aid in his recovery. Either that, or the Israelis are trying to keep the lid from blowing off all at once, in the hope that a slow release of pressure will serve them better. Whichever way the cards are being played, it's clear that there may be some rocky times ahead for the Mideast. Again.
The problems we're probably going to see in short order are going to depend a lot on who is on top when the cards finish coming to ground. Sharon held a unique position; he was one of the few Israeli leaders who could show a lot of strength to the charges of being soft on the Palestinians due to his war record. This has always been one of the big problems with the Mideast peace process, just like the Palestinians are willing to abandon any leader that they see kowtowing to Israel, the Israeli right is loath to support someone who seems to be giving away their land to hostile foreigners. Even with religion kept out of it, the Israelis and the Palestinians have more than enough reason to hate each other for several more decades. His successor may have to demonstrate his firmness to the Israeli people to maintain the momentum of the peace process, and that means reprisals for Palestinian raids at an increased level.
Of course, this isn't set in stone. Not be a long shot. But a lot of worry is circulating that whoever follows Sharon may have to demonstrate his political strength, and his willingness to defend Israeli territory, by showing that he's tough on the Palestinians. This could mean anything up to enlarging the settlement area in the West Bank, a subject already so politically hot that it's burned everyone who has touched it. The other problem is that Sharon's departure, if it happens, could lead to a power vacuum at a very bad time.
It's no secret that the experiment in Gaza is hovering on the edge of disaster. The Fatah party didn't exactly do very well, probably because it was the remains of a guerrilla organization that had degenerated into gangsterism, instead of a true political party. Now it's quagmired in its own inefficiency, it's infighting, and it's lack of purpose. The trouble is that the opposition is united. The other trouble is that the opposition, mainly Hamas, has only one platform, namely to become the leading political power in Gaza. There's no evidence that Hamas has much more of a realistic plan for rebuilding their new nation than Fatah does, and a lot of indication that they will throw the Gaza strip away in order to launch a few more rockets at Israel. Hopefully they have more control over themselves, but they either do not know or do not care that their people have a lot to lose by their actions. Both sides seem intent upon stomping the economic life of Gaza into nothingness.
The one good piece of news of the peace process has been that both sides appear to have accepted that the other side will continue to exist. This used to be a major barrier. The Palestinians used to seem to have an opinion that the Israelis were total western puppets, and that if their life was made hard enough they would return to the other Jewish homeland that they had come from. The Israelis tended to see Palestinians as the same as all Arabs, if they were dispersed enough sooner or later they would go to the other Arab countries and be welcomed there. Neither side is about to budge. Fortunately, it looks like both sides have accepted that co-existence of some sort is their only option.
On the Palestinian side the problem will be what happens if they get a new state in the West Bank as well. It's become painfully clear that nobody has been able to sideline the power of the militias to build a new Palestinian government. And this is the source of trouble. Any Israeli PM has to take an enormous risk by allowing a Palestinian nation to crop up on their borders. They need to show their people that such a situation is advantageous, that it cuts down on the number of attacks. To do that, they will need the Palestinian people to police their own ranks, and keep their militants in check. Whoever inherits the Palestinian mantle must both build a nation from economic nothingness, and keep their own militants from provoking the Israelis into either reconquering the territory, or launching massive retaliation that will essentially impoverish or destroy the Palestinian people.
The Israeli side is just as murky. Whoever runs the show will have to be able to force their people to see that the long term benefit of independent Palestine will overshadow the short-term effects of instability. At the same time they will have to keep the Palestinians contained, without looking like he's containing them. It's a lot of trouble from both sides. He will have to move towards peace, without looking soft, a balancing act that is never easy to perform. He can rest assured that Israel holds all the cards in this high-stakes game, but it may not be enough.
Like him or hate him, Ariel Sharon might have had the willpower to pull that off. If he does exit the public spotlight, it remains to be seen whether his successor will have the same mettle.