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danalwynSomething interesting happened today. The Israelis took down their flag, packed their buses, and got the hell out of Gaza. They left behind a bunch of synagogues, a bunch of Palestinians, and a whole lot of questions. Gaza is now "free", depending on what your definition of free is. And now the whole world is wondering what exactly that means.
So, I'll give you a brief rundown of my own opinions on this, just because I can. Everything following this cut is my opinion, and may not necessarily be factual. In fact, I can probably guarantee that if you are either Palestinian or Israeli you will find the following to be insulting. I can live with that. Can you?
Some questions and answers.
Q: First, is Gaza really free?
No. Israel still controls all the border crossings as well as the sea and air access. Once they return this to the Palestinians, they will actually be free of Israeli control. Right now land access is the key, entering or leaving the border by land will determine whether or not the Palestinians consider themselves to be truly free, since their access to sea and land travel is pretty sparse anyway.
Q: Second, will Israel give back the West Bank?
Your question made me laugh so hard I vomited into my slippers. No. At least, not in the near future.
Q: Why not?
Because the West Bank is much more important, both strategically and symbolically, to the Israelis. It consists of many more settlements, much of them more heavily fortified, and has been fought over much more than Gaza. Nobody really wanted Gaza, the West Bank is a very different story. For religious Israelis it is part of their homeland, promised to them by God. For some secular Israelis it is territory that they won fair and square, and they plan to keep it. There's nothing to be gained by withdrawing now that they have spent so much effort to build it up. Where are the people going to live anyway? And why should the Palestinian claim to their homeland overcome the Israeli claim to theirs? Basically, this is a case of the Israelis having a lot to lose, and not a lot to gain.
Q: Isn't it Palestinian land in the first place?
Maybe so, maybe no.
The Palestinians claim that they are owed it under the agreements of the Six-Day War.
The Israelis claim that the Arab nations never held up their end of that bargain until after they started the Yom Kippur War, which abrogates the earlier peace treaty.
The Palestinians claim that it was reinforced in a UN mandate.
The Israelis rebutt that it was an offer by the Israeli people to preserve peace. You can't have your cake and eat it too, and you can't start a war, lose, and expect to come back to the pre-war status quo. You lost, deal with it.
The Palestinians point out that the land is theirs under the original agreements for Israel's existence.
Israel would like to remind the Palestinians that those were abrogated in a series of mutual wars.
The Palestinians remind the Israelis that the land was seized in an act of aggression by the Israelis in the Six-Day War.
The Israelis claim that they were provoked by the Egyptian-Syrian leadership.
The Palestinians complain that the Egyptians didn't mean it.
The Israelis claim that that's not the point.
The Palestinians point out that the Israelis don't have the ability to control it.
The Israelis respond that the Palestinians can't stop the Israelis from evicting their entire nation.
The Palestinians point out that the Israelis are sintkyheads.
The Israelis claim that the Palestinians are all bedwetters.
At this point the rest of the world got so tired of this argument that they constructed the world's largest bitch-slap, to be applied simultaneously to both Israelis and Palestinians. Unfortunately, it's still under construction, so until it's ready we have to listen to them argue.
Q: So the Palestinians aren't getting all of the West Bank back?
Chances are slim.
Q: But not zero?
Well...true.
Q: So what do the Palestinians have to do to get the West Bank back?
Demonstrate that they can rule it effectively by ruling Gaza effectively. What Israel is worried about is that places like Gaza are going to become nests of terrorists who will continue to launch suicide and other attacks on Israel. They would like to avoid this. For them, they would like it immensely if the Palestinians were reigned in by their own government, which should be dramatically more effective in keeping things under control. It will also help the Israeli security role if the Palestinians have something substantial to lose if they cross Israel. But in order to do this, the Palestinian government will have to prove that they have the will and the ability to reign in their own radicals. Radical groups tend to run like criminal gangs for the most part, getting money from kidnapping and extortion. Someone will have to come up with a way to make bugging the Israelis extremely unprofitable to the directors.
Q: Why is this such a hassle?
Because the Gaza government doesn't have a leg to stand on. They're already engaged in a struggle with the largest of the "warlord" groups, our friends from Hamas, about who's in charge. They inspire the loyalty and trust of very few. That part of the Middle East is currently ruled by the gun, and whoever can attract the best warriors to their side plans on winning. There are riches and power to be had, and none of the groups in Gaza is willing to forgo their chance at it. So first, Abbas will have to somehow step on Hamas, or Hamas will have to take over from Abbas. Then both sides will have to overcome their original criminal-like natures and figure out where to go next. But as long as there are still armed and volatile factions, it's unlikely that a strong government will be able to emerge.
Q: What's the economy of Palestine based on?
Foreign aid.
Q: No, really. What's it based on?
Really foreign aid. The Israelis left the Palestinians the greenhouses, but there's not much else there. There's even less in the West Bank. The Palestinians do swing a lot of money from foreign governments, but that mostly seems to go to guns. With the political parties fighting each other in the street, it's very hard for honest people to make a living off of that. This has been one of the big questions, once the Palestinians get their own nation, what are they going to do with it?
Q: So there's no economy?
Take my advice. Don't invest in the Palestinian currency. If they get one.
Q: Are the Israelis worried that the Palestinians will build up their own nation and be able to challenge Israel directly?
Not from a military standpoint. Think of the last time an Arab army beat a modern Western army in the field.
Can't think of a time? Exactly. So far the Arab states have been constitutionally incapable of creating a formidable disciplined army for precisely the same reason that the French could not do it during the High Middle Ages, it's too powerful, and their culture just isn't built in a way that emphasizes that type of social compact. An army incorporating all the power groups of a major Arab country is right now unfeasible, and an army incorporating only one group would generate more trouble than it could solve.
From an economic standpoint, it's even less feasible. The Palestinians have no oil, and have major problems with education. Plus they aren't large enough to compete with the Chinese in manufacturing. They can't build the social structure necessary to support that. Yet.
Q: But the French did it.
True. But remember, it took them about five hundred years to ease from a fractioned monarchy to a semi-functional democracy, and they took some major lumps while doing so. If you want to wait even two or three hundred years there may be a very well proportioned Palestinian state. But don't expect one in even a decade.
Q: Why don't the Israelis just kick the Palestinians out?
Because the Israeli economy is still dependent upon cheap Palestinian labor to survive. If the Palestinians all left, the Israeli economy would collapse in probably a matter of weeks, and would take several years to return to the proper level.
Q: Why don't the Palestinians leave then and go elsewhere? Surely anything is better than where they live now.
Arabs are not one people, the Palestinians are only one branch of a very diverse family, a family that needs rather severe family counseling. Stabbing your neighbors and associates in the back seems to be a pastime in the Middle East, and it's led to some very complicated feuding. Basically, the antipathy between the Palestinians and the other Arabs puts the antipathy between the Irish and the English, or the English and the French, to shame. Strangely enough, Israel is one of the better countries to be in if you're Palestinian (that's from a biased perspective though, a real Palestinian will have different answers). The Arab nations are fine with egging the Palestinians on, as long as they live in somebody else's yard.
Q: Is America controlling the Israeli policy?
This is a favorite of the Arab media, but we probably have less control over what the Israelis do then the Arabs themselves. They really don't need our foreign aid anymore, although they'll take whatever they can get. We control the Israelis in the same way the Soviets used to control the Arabs, on the ends of a very long leash.
Q: Are the Palestinians being controlled by radical Islam?
Some are, but most of them just want their homeland back. It just looks that way because they so happen to fit the purposes of the Islamicists.
Q: Is there a solution to this?
Yes. Put all the Palestinians on boats and ship them on a one-way trip to Antartica. Then ship the Israelis to northern Greenland. Leave them there and re-settle Palestine with Buddhists.
Q: Would that really work?
No. The Buddhists would start fighting each other. It's something in the water.
So, I'll give you a brief rundown of my own opinions on this, just because I can. Everything following this cut is my opinion, and may not necessarily be factual. In fact, I can probably guarantee that if you are either Palestinian or Israeli you will find the following to be insulting. I can live with that. Can you?
Some questions and answers.
Q: First, is Gaza really free?
No. Israel still controls all the border crossings as well as the sea and air access. Once they return this to the Palestinians, they will actually be free of Israeli control. Right now land access is the key, entering or leaving the border by land will determine whether or not the Palestinians consider themselves to be truly free, since their access to sea and land travel is pretty sparse anyway.
Q: Second, will Israel give back the West Bank?
Your question made me laugh so hard I vomited into my slippers. No. At least, not in the near future.
Q: Why not?
Because the West Bank is much more important, both strategically and symbolically, to the Israelis. It consists of many more settlements, much of them more heavily fortified, and has been fought over much more than Gaza. Nobody really wanted Gaza, the West Bank is a very different story. For religious Israelis it is part of their homeland, promised to them by God. For some secular Israelis it is territory that they won fair and square, and they plan to keep it. There's nothing to be gained by withdrawing now that they have spent so much effort to build it up. Where are the people going to live anyway? And why should the Palestinian claim to their homeland overcome the Israeli claim to theirs? Basically, this is a case of the Israelis having a lot to lose, and not a lot to gain.
Q: Isn't it Palestinian land in the first place?
Maybe so, maybe no.
The Palestinians claim that they are owed it under the agreements of the Six-Day War.
The Israelis claim that the Arab nations never held up their end of that bargain until after they started the Yom Kippur War, which abrogates the earlier peace treaty.
The Palestinians claim that it was reinforced in a UN mandate.
The Israelis rebutt that it was an offer by the Israeli people to preserve peace. You can't have your cake and eat it too, and you can't start a war, lose, and expect to come back to the pre-war status quo. You lost, deal with it.
The Palestinians point out that the land is theirs under the original agreements for Israel's existence.
Israel would like to remind the Palestinians that those were abrogated in a series of mutual wars.
The Palestinians remind the Israelis that the land was seized in an act of aggression by the Israelis in the Six-Day War.
The Israelis claim that they were provoked by the Egyptian-Syrian leadership.
The Palestinians complain that the Egyptians didn't mean it.
The Israelis claim that that's not the point.
The Palestinians point out that the Israelis don't have the ability to control it.
The Israelis respond that the Palestinians can't stop the Israelis from evicting their entire nation.
The Palestinians point out that the Israelis are sintkyheads.
The Israelis claim that the Palestinians are all bedwetters.
At this point the rest of the world got so tired of this argument that they constructed the world's largest bitch-slap, to be applied simultaneously to both Israelis and Palestinians. Unfortunately, it's still under construction, so until it's ready we have to listen to them argue.
Q: So the Palestinians aren't getting all of the West Bank back?
Chances are slim.
Q: But not zero?
Well...true.
Q: So what do the Palestinians have to do to get the West Bank back?
Demonstrate that they can rule it effectively by ruling Gaza effectively. What Israel is worried about is that places like Gaza are going to become nests of terrorists who will continue to launch suicide and other attacks on Israel. They would like to avoid this. For them, they would like it immensely if the Palestinians were reigned in by their own government, which should be dramatically more effective in keeping things under control. It will also help the Israeli security role if the Palestinians have something substantial to lose if they cross Israel. But in order to do this, the Palestinian government will have to prove that they have the will and the ability to reign in their own radicals. Radical groups tend to run like criminal gangs for the most part, getting money from kidnapping and extortion. Someone will have to come up with a way to make bugging the Israelis extremely unprofitable to the directors.
Q: Why is this such a hassle?
Because the Gaza government doesn't have a leg to stand on. They're already engaged in a struggle with the largest of the "warlord" groups, our friends from Hamas, about who's in charge. They inspire the loyalty and trust of very few. That part of the Middle East is currently ruled by the gun, and whoever can attract the best warriors to their side plans on winning. There are riches and power to be had, and none of the groups in Gaza is willing to forgo their chance at it. So first, Abbas will have to somehow step on Hamas, or Hamas will have to take over from Abbas. Then both sides will have to overcome their original criminal-like natures and figure out where to go next. But as long as there are still armed and volatile factions, it's unlikely that a strong government will be able to emerge.
Q: What's the economy of Palestine based on?
Foreign aid.
Q: No, really. What's it based on?
Really foreign aid. The Israelis left the Palestinians the greenhouses, but there's not much else there. There's even less in the West Bank. The Palestinians do swing a lot of money from foreign governments, but that mostly seems to go to guns. With the political parties fighting each other in the street, it's very hard for honest people to make a living off of that. This has been one of the big questions, once the Palestinians get their own nation, what are they going to do with it?
Q: So there's no economy?
Take my advice. Don't invest in the Palestinian currency. If they get one.
Q: Are the Israelis worried that the Palestinians will build up their own nation and be able to challenge Israel directly?
Not from a military standpoint. Think of the last time an Arab army beat a modern Western army in the field.
Can't think of a time? Exactly. So far the Arab states have been constitutionally incapable of creating a formidable disciplined army for precisely the same reason that the French could not do it during the High Middle Ages, it's too powerful, and their culture just isn't built in a way that emphasizes that type of social compact. An army incorporating all the power groups of a major Arab country is right now unfeasible, and an army incorporating only one group would generate more trouble than it could solve.
From an economic standpoint, it's even less feasible. The Palestinians have no oil, and have major problems with education. Plus they aren't large enough to compete with the Chinese in manufacturing. They can't build the social structure necessary to support that. Yet.
Q: But the French did it.
True. But remember, it took them about five hundred years to ease from a fractioned monarchy to a semi-functional democracy, and they took some major lumps while doing so. If you want to wait even two or three hundred years there may be a very well proportioned Palestinian state. But don't expect one in even a decade.
Q: Why don't the Israelis just kick the Palestinians out?
Because the Israeli economy is still dependent upon cheap Palestinian labor to survive. If the Palestinians all left, the Israeli economy would collapse in probably a matter of weeks, and would take several years to return to the proper level.
Q: Why don't the Palestinians leave then and go elsewhere? Surely anything is better than where they live now.
Arabs are not one people, the Palestinians are only one branch of a very diverse family, a family that needs rather severe family counseling. Stabbing your neighbors and associates in the back seems to be a pastime in the Middle East, and it's led to some very complicated feuding. Basically, the antipathy between the Palestinians and the other Arabs puts the antipathy between the Irish and the English, or the English and the French, to shame. Strangely enough, Israel is one of the better countries to be in if you're Palestinian (that's from a biased perspective though, a real Palestinian will have different answers). The Arab nations are fine with egging the Palestinians on, as long as they live in somebody else's yard.
Q: Is America controlling the Israeli policy?
This is a favorite of the Arab media, but we probably have less control over what the Israelis do then the Arabs themselves. They really don't need our foreign aid anymore, although they'll take whatever they can get. We control the Israelis in the same way the Soviets used to control the Arabs, on the ends of a very long leash.
Q: Are the Palestinians being controlled by radical Islam?
Some are, but most of them just want their homeland back. It just looks that way because they so happen to fit the purposes of the Islamicists.
Q: Is there a solution to this?
Yes. Put all the Palestinians on boats and ship them on a one-way trip to Antartica. Then ship the Israelis to northern Greenland. Leave them there and re-settle Palestine with Buddhists.
Q: Would that really work?
No. The Buddhists would start fighting each other. It's something in the water.
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(no subject)
Date: 2005-09-12 10:03 am (UTC)Yes. Put all the Palestinians on boats and ship them on a one-way trip to Antartica. Then ship the Israelis to northern Greenland. Leave them there and re-settle Palestine with Buddhists.
Q: Would that really work?
No. The Buddhists would start fighting each other. It's something in the water.
No, no, no! Look, you take the Israelis and put them in Northern Ireland, and then you take the Hindu Kashmiris and put them in Northern Ireland too, because Hindus and Jews are perfect bed partners. Then you take the Loyalist N. Irish and put them in former-Israel and you take the Republican N. Irish and put them in Kashmir. Take the Muslim Kashmiris and put them in Sudan, and take the Sudanese to settle in the American Mid-West.
That's what, 4 birds with one stone?
(no subject)
Date: 2005-09-12 12:07 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2005-09-12 08:41 pm (UTC)Ok, no, I'm not serious. But much love.
(Why exactly is it that the Jews and Arabs want this piece of land so much, but the Christians don't? The Christians are just as war-like as the rest of them!)
(no subject)
Date: 2005-09-13 01:48 am (UTC)