The chance of it blowing up is extremely unlikely for the most part, and the threat from biological weapons has been slightly overestimated in the press (last I heard, the ex-Soviets were still having some problems with their super-smallpox). Not many people there with nuclear capabilities either.
I can't speak for Strategic, because I gave up any pretension of being able to understand Grand Strategy years ago, but I don't see any advantage in a general war from a tactical standpoint. It looks like Israel is trying to send a message to Damascus, using a very badly thought out method. Neither Egypt nor Jordan seems ready to throw down, which should keep things relatively quiet.
What you should worry about is that this could destroy progress in Lebanon, and reduce what might have been a thriving country to a hate-wracked wasteland. As a firm believer in the idea that economic prosperity and stability reduce random violence, I have to say that the lost opportunity for peace that is being thrown away hurts me more than anything.
Of course, that's just my opinion, and I've been wrong before, but I think that it's safe to come out from under the bed.
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Date: 2006-07-21 03:30 am (UTC)I can't speak for Strategic, because I gave up any pretension of being able to understand Grand Strategy years ago, but I don't see any advantage in a general war from a tactical standpoint. It looks like Israel is trying to send a message to Damascus, using a very badly thought out method. Neither Egypt nor Jordan seems ready to throw down, which should keep things relatively quiet.
What you should worry about is that this could destroy progress in Lebanon, and reduce what might have been a thriving country to a hate-wracked wasteland. As a firm believer in the idea that economic prosperity and stability reduce random violence, I have to say that the lost opportunity for peace that is being thrown away hurts me more than anything.
Of course, that's just my opinion, and I've been wrong before, but I think that it's safe to come out from under the bed.