Countdown

Everyone is now leaking the news that Mubarak is expected to step down this evening. This is both good in general (the only person who seems to genuinely like Mubarak these days is the bold, charismatic, suave, smartest man in the world, the fashion trend-setting Kim Jong-Il of North Korea), but a bit troubling in particular.

The troubling aspect comes from who is making the leaks. The hints come from the heads of the Egyptian military, who seem to have been in conference over this matter. Also from Hossam Badrawi, the secretary-general of Mubarak's National Democratic Party. In the United States, the message has been leaked by Panetta, Director of the CIA (who has since said he was only quoting news reports). People who spend their time reading tea leaves are a bit nervous because the message that seems to be spread here is that the real power-brokers have gotten together and decided to do away with Mubarak. The message is then that there will be change in leadership, but continuity in the people actually running things behind the scene. In that case the protesters may find the new boss to be much the same as the old boss.

In the long run this is just pissing into the wind; they can't keep the people out forever. But in the short run it's making the cynics, who have been worried that the protests in Egypt have been rather carefully managed so as not to threaten the powers-that-be, look increasingly justified in their gloomy analysis of Egypt's future.

But still, if Mubarak goes, no matter who replaces him, it's a victory for the people, so I'll try not to rain on their parade.

It's On

Apparently Mubarak didn't get the memo about resigning. The army may not be happy. The crowd is downright incensed.

Either the army decided to throw in with the regime, and Mubarak is pushing the crowd to provoke the army and give him an excuse to crack down, or he's got something else to fall back upon. Or he's totally out of touch.

He might think that he can hold out. After all, protests can't go on forever. But the protests can also push him out directly, especially if the army gets tired of Mubarak. Maybe he's hoping that the crowd will get violent and push the military onto his side. Maybe he's just completely out of touch.

And why did the military and the state television appear to desert him? Is it possible that there is now a schism between the NDP leadership and Mubarak? Is Mubarak hanging on against attempts by his own side to oust him. Is this a massive NDP game to position themselves as the "good guys", acting to push out the man who made them what they are, and thus guaranteeing themselves a place in the future of Egypt? Is this Mubarak betting that foreign nations will back him if he starts cracking down, if he even has that power? Is he hoping to drive some of the protesters to violence and split them in two parts?

I don't know. I can't read his mind. But nobody's going to be sleeping in the tactical office tonight. Get ready for a storm tomorrow.