Certainly the loss of the core technical people is going to hurt Libya, but I'm not sure by how much. One of the (supposed) differences between the Arab world and, say, Sub-Saharan Africa is that the education level is supposedly higher in the Arab world. Whether that will translate into the ability to get things done is anyone's guess.
I do think that we've passed the point at which we can say that dictatorship is "productive" for the Arab world. For a certain amount of time, as much as I hate to admit it, dictators get the trains running on time, not to mention the water, the power, and everything else. However, after a point dictators stop building up the national institutions that keep things going and start tearing them down, so that their power structure isn't threatened. I think the Arab world as a whole has crossed the point where dictators can really move anything forward, and that at this point some kind of revolution is inevitable.
My guess is that Libya will end up looking less like America after the American Revolution, and more like England after the signing of the Magna Carta. There are still very powerful local groups in play, and they'll probably have a few minor civil wars to straighten things out. Libya may have an advantage over Egypt in this matter - their population centers are fairly spread out, grouped roughly into different regions (Trpolitania, Cyrenaica, and Fezzan), and dispersed in power. No region has an overwhelming military advantage, or overwhelming economic leverage. What I'm hoping is that this will end up looking more like a loose confederation, with a government forced to let the locals go their own way. Over time then (decades) the economic power of the cities may force the entire country to eventually fall into the orbit of Tripoli and Benghazi and the rest of the coastal cities, which may then lay the grounds for a more stable government.
I do admit that it's probably a good idea to be pessimistic at this point, but I don't think optimism is impossible. I can still hope for a relatively peaceful confederation. Even with a bickering, hostile confederation, I can believe (and it is an act of faith) that time will slowly enhance the power of the urban middle and working class and eventually give them economic, and then political, dominance. It's the oil that complicates things. That and all the people with guns. I'll be watching closely.
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Date: 2011-10-21 02:11 pm (UTC)I do think that we've passed the point at which we can say that dictatorship is "productive" for the Arab world. For a certain amount of time, as much as I hate to admit it, dictators get the trains running on time, not to mention the water, the power, and everything else. However, after a point dictators stop building up the national institutions that keep things going and start tearing them down, so that their power structure isn't threatened. I think the Arab world as a whole has crossed the point where dictators can really move anything forward, and that at this point some kind of revolution is inevitable.
My guess is that Libya will end up looking less like America after the American Revolution, and more like England after the signing of the Magna Carta. There are still very powerful local groups in play, and they'll probably have a few minor civil wars to straighten things out. Libya may have an advantage over Egypt in this matter - their population centers are fairly spread out, grouped roughly into different regions (Trpolitania, Cyrenaica, and Fezzan), and dispersed in power. No region has an overwhelming military advantage, or overwhelming economic leverage. What I'm hoping is that this will end up looking more like a loose confederation, with a government forced to let the locals go their own way. Over time then (decades) the economic power of the cities may force the entire country to eventually fall into the orbit of Tripoli and Benghazi and the rest of the coastal cities, which may then lay the grounds for a more stable government.
I do admit that it's probably a good idea to be pessimistic at this point, but I don't think optimism is impossible. I can still hope for a relatively peaceful confederation. Even with a bickering, hostile confederation, I can believe (and it is an act of faith) that time will slowly enhance the power of the urban middle and working class and eventually give them economic, and then political, dominance. It's the oil that complicates things. That and all the people with guns. I'll be watching closely.