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The Fighting Has Started
Mubarak isn't stupid, he can think as well as any news correspondent. One of the things people have commented about has been the difference between Tunisia and Iran's "Green Revolution". The main difference people could come up with was that the Iranian regime really did have a large base. Not a majority perhaps, but enough to put their own crowds on the street and to provide them with muscle.
Well, Mubarak's got his crowd on the street now. My guess is that it's not so much a "crowd", but a collection of police and security officers, the core force that Mubarak has used to suppress dissent. al-Jazeera has several cameras on the action, which is mostly limited at this point to the hurling of rocks and other impromptu projectiles, but appears to be escalating with the fall of night.
The pro-Mubarak side came prepared and armed for bear. They look like they brought with them at least three two-and-a-half ton 6x6 trucks, possibly from army stock, which they are using as a rolling defensive line, giving them a moving barricade to shield their lead ranks from rocks, and some additional horsepower to run down barricades. It looks like they've taken the 6th October Bridge, and are trying to push their way into Tahrir Square from the north, going down the Meret Basha. It's a major approach, and the western side of the road is anchored on the Egyptian Museum, currently occupied by the Egyptian Army, so neither side can go around the flank. They've also taken the intelligent step of seizing the rooftops along the eastern edge of the street, giving them a platform to rain projectiles down on the anti-government protesters who still hold the square.
Meanwhile, the army seems disinclined to get in the middle of this. To me it looks like they're waiting to see what happens. And it looks like the Molotov Cocktails are starting.
If I were the pro-Mubarak coordinator: I would be very happy right now. I've already taken the northern side of the square. My next objective would not be so much to take the square itself, but to cut it off, to possibly cut the Kasr al Nile bridge to the south, and to move into the city in the east, heading south-east to cut off the square from three directions. I wouldn't have the force to really close the city off, but I can put people on the rooftops of all the highrises and use that to delay and break up any large movement to reinforce the anti-Mubarak protesters. I'm not trying to fight a battle in the square in front of international media, I'm trying to starve the protesters out.
If I were the anti-government coordinator: I would be trying to get coordinated. I've got enough force to keep my end of the Meret Basha for a while, especially with the army hemming in one side. But my success depends on keeping the protests going. Tahrir Square is the heart of the protests, but for a heart to keep beating it needs blood, and the protests need people. I need to avoid being hemmed in. I need to be able to get fresh supporters in, and get injured ones out. To do that I want to secure lines to most of Cairo's major population centers. A route to the east city across the Nile would be necessary, but I might try and go further south. In the meantime I need to get my own people up to the top of buildings, and start digging up even stronger material for barricades and projectiles. So, dig in along the northern edge of the square, and start getting people up on top of buildings to the east to keep from getting cut off. And then hope I can get some more people in, or at least around my eastern side to give the pro-Mubarak people something to worry about.
If I were the army: I would probably do exactly what they're doing, nothing. It's unclear to me whether or not the army will actually move no matter which way you point - sitting in neutral is better then accidentally starting a civil war.
Well, Mubarak's got his crowd on the street now. My guess is that it's not so much a "crowd", but a collection of police and security officers, the core force that Mubarak has used to suppress dissent. al-Jazeera has several cameras on the action, which is mostly limited at this point to the hurling of rocks and other impromptu projectiles, but appears to be escalating with the fall of night.
The pro-Mubarak side came prepared and armed for bear. They look like they brought with them at least three two-and-a-half ton 6x6 trucks, possibly from army stock, which they are using as a rolling defensive line, giving them a moving barricade to shield their lead ranks from rocks, and some additional horsepower to run down barricades. It looks like they've taken the 6th October Bridge, and are trying to push their way into Tahrir Square from the north, going down the Meret Basha. It's a major approach, and the western side of the road is anchored on the Egyptian Museum, currently occupied by the Egyptian Army, so neither side can go around the flank. They've also taken the intelligent step of seizing the rooftops along the eastern edge of the street, giving them a platform to rain projectiles down on the anti-government protesters who still hold the square.
Meanwhile, the army seems disinclined to get in the middle of this. To me it looks like they're waiting to see what happens. And it looks like the Molotov Cocktails are starting.
If I were the pro-Mubarak coordinator: I would be very happy right now. I've already taken the northern side of the square. My next objective would not be so much to take the square itself, but to cut it off, to possibly cut the Kasr al Nile bridge to the south, and to move into the city in the east, heading south-east to cut off the square from three directions. I wouldn't have the force to really close the city off, but I can put people on the rooftops of all the highrises and use that to delay and break up any large movement to reinforce the anti-Mubarak protesters. I'm not trying to fight a battle in the square in front of international media, I'm trying to starve the protesters out.
If I were the anti-government coordinator: I would be trying to get coordinated. I've got enough force to keep my end of the Meret Basha for a while, especially with the army hemming in one side. But my success depends on keeping the protests going. Tahrir Square is the heart of the protests, but for a heart to keep beating it needs blood, and the protests need people. I need to avoid being hemmed in. I need to be able to get fresh supporters in, and get injured ones out. To do that I want to secure lines to most of Cairo's major population centers. A route to the east city across the Nile would be necessary, but I might try and go further south. In the meantime I need to get my own people up to the top of buildings, and start digging up even stronger material for barricades and projectiles. So, dig in along the northern edge of the square, and start getting people up on top of buildings to the east to keep from getting cut off. And then hope I can get some more people in, or at least around my eastern side to give the pro-Mubarak people something to worry about.
If I were the army: I would probably do exactly what they're doing, nothing. It's unclear to me whether or not the army will actually move no matter which way you point - sitting in neutral is better then accidentally starting a civil war.