I'm thinking that it one of the contenders in the Iranian election won't get the nod, because even though they were running, they were still a pretty cleric-happy and nuke-happy bunch. FP is pointing towards imprisoned Chinese professors, or possibly Vaclav Havel.

The defenders of the prize point out that the prize isn't actual an accomplishments prize, it's awarded to people to encourage them to continue in their efforts. This is one of the strange ways in which the Peace and the Sciences/Literature prize differ. Whether Obama had any efforts ongoing that need that kind of encouragement is up for debate, and I'm sort of dubious.

Maybe they're just evening out Teddy Roosevelt or something.