More Middle East stuff

[danalwyn]

I confess at this point - I have people in my head.  Most of them are more or less under my control, and only rarely do strange things, so it's not like what some people get.  Many of them just reflect certain points of view.  They argue a lot with each other, and it often dissolves into slapstick by the end.

I let them argue about the situation in Lebanon.  This was probably a mistake.  Nobody could come to a conclusion that made any sense, and in the process it gave me a giant headache.  Although I generally don't support Israel's maneuvers in this affair, I have to admit, they have some supporters in my head.  The argument went long and hard.

Because I haven't horrified you guys recently, I thought I would give you a peek into how my thought process goes.  I've translated these points-of-view into their nearest recognizable counterpart (they sometimes appear to me to be fictional characters only I know about), but the translation is a little off, so don't be surprised if they act in ways that you don't expect.  Then I condensed it.  So now you can watch me argue with myself about whether Israel's invasion of Lebanon will get them anything, the way I think about it.

Warden:  All rise for his Excellency

 

All seated dignitaries and representatives rise.  The Judge looks exasperated.

 

Judge:  I thought we agreed that we weren’t going through all the formalities?

Warden:  All be seated.

Judge:  Now, who here is representing the aggressor?

Voice: Point of Order.

 

A tall, thin, man with a dark beard and a rather tired expression stands up.  He is wearing an old-style black suit.

 

Judge: The court recognizes the President of the United States.  Mr. Lincoln has the floor.

Lincoln: Not an accusation, but how has it been decided that Israel is standing as the aggressor in this conflict?

Judge:  We find the activities of the organization known as Hezbollah to be not inconsistent with their practices of the past several years.  Hence the actions of the Israeli Defense Force in response may be considered an unusual response to a standard provocation, and the Israelis will stand for the aggressors in this review.

Lincoln:  Thank you for the clarification <sits>.

Judge: Now, who is representing the aggressors?

Voice:  That would be me.

 

A rather slovenly man in a blue coat slouches his way up to the podium at the front of the room.  He smells faintly of alcohol, but his eyes are alert and there is nothing to indicate that he is even remotely unfocused.

 

Judge:  Ah, the court recognizes General U.S. Grant.  Do you take it upon yourself to demonstrate that the strategy of the Israeli Defense Forces has both practical aim and potential fruition?

Grant:  I do.

Judge:  And who represents the defense in this matter?

Voice:  I.

 

He is not wheelchair bound, but there is a definite feeling of weakness about this older gentleman as he limps his way to the front.

 

Judge:  The court recognizes the President of the United States, Mr. Roosevelt.  Are you prepared to justify before this body the claim that the Israeli offensive can in no way accomplish more than it costs?

FDR:  I am.

Judge:  It is traditional in this matter to let the defense speak first.  Mr. Roosevelt?

FDR:  In regards to this invasion, the Israeli government has released two formal objectives.  One is to recover the two kidnapped Israeli soldiers, the other is to destroy all weapons in the possession of Hezbollah that can strike at Israel.  I aim to show that neither goal will improve Israel’s long-term security.  I also aim to show that the actions of the Israeli Defense Force involve causing massive damage to a civilian infrastructure that cannot be justified by the immediate goals, and that they only act to weaken the legitimate government of Lebanon.  Since both of these results cause mass humanitarian damage without benefit to Israel, I claim that they are both unreasonable reactions to the provocation under discussion.

Judge:  And you General Grant?

Grant:  I’m going to show the court…hmph…excuse me, show the court that not only is the assault on Lebanon justified legally, but that it also may win Israel a hard-fought peace.  Roosevelt has forgotten that sometimes the reasons left unstated are the reasons for going to war.  In this case, Israel is clearly using this as an opportunity to send a message to Hezbollah’s backers in Syria and Iran about what they will and will not tolerate.

Judge:  Very well.  The defense may begin presenting their arguments.

FDR:  The defense chooses to defer.

Judge:  As you wish.  General Grant?

Grant:  Let’s start with the facts.  First, the organization known as Hezbollah has repeatedly attacked civilian targets inside Israel from across the border.  Second, Hezbollah is controlled predominately by Syria and Iran.  Third, Lebanon has incorporated this group into their government.  Fourth, any reasonable nation must accept these actions by an element of the Lebanese government as an act of war-

FDR:  Objection!

Judge:  Yes, Mr. Roosevelt.

FDR: I would remind the court that the actions of Hezbollah represent neither the intent nor the interests of the government of Lebanon and that –

Grant:  Oh bullshit.  That’s not the point.  If one third of your country decides to go out and bomb some other country, you better expect retaliation.

 

On the floor, an elegantly dressed Chinese man in green and white silk, with a pointed beard, stands up quickly.

 

Judge:  The court recognizes the representative of Strategic, the minister of Shu Han.

Zhuge Liang:  If one third of a country decides to contravene the interests and intent of the rest of the country, perhaps it is upon them that retaliation should fall?

Grant:  Silence implies consent.  If they are using your infrastructure and your territory to support their operations, you should expect that it gets hit.

Zhuge Liang:  They have voiced their protests over the actions of Hezbollah multiple times.

Grant:  Stop taking me so damn literally Zhuge.  Talk is cheap.  Action is what counts.  And if the government is not willing to put the fear of God into Hezbollah, than they shouldn’t be surprised when Israel does.

FDR:  The point is that the Lebanese government is not strong enough to put a stop to Hezbollah’s attacks-

 

Another man wearing blue stands up in the audience to interrupt.

 

Sherman:  If your control over your own country is so bad that one of your political parties can set up shop on the southern border and start lobbing artillery at your neighbors, than you ain’t exactly in control, are you?

 

There is an immediate uproar among the crowd, with representatives and observers jostling each other.  The Judge bangs his gavel multiple times.

 

Judge:  Order, order!  I will have order!  Yes, Toshimichi Okubo, you have something to say?

Okubo:  From the general thrust of the argument, it appears that Generals Sherman and Grant are proposing that a nation that cannot prevent a splinter group from using its territory as a base of operations against a foreign power cannot be said to be in control of the territory in question, and hence has no claim to it?

Grant:  That’s damn right.

 

Another uproar of shouting.  Several of the representatives from Strategy are howling at the Tactical group, and vice versa.  The noise eventually subsides to the pounding of the gavel.

 

Judge:  Maintain order, damn you!

Grant:  If you cannot maintain control, than it ain’t yours!  Either take it back, or don’t be surprised if someone else takes it for you!

FDR: A question to the advisory board.  Can Lebanon take control of their southern border from Hezbollah?

Arthur Wellsely, Duke Wellington: Yes.

Zhuge Liang: No.

 

The two representatives stare at each other for a long moment.

 

Judge: < looking very short tempered> Wellington, you first.

Wellington:  From my old adversary’s quotations, God is on the side with the bigger battalions.  Between the forces currently available to the Lebanese army, estimated at 38,000 soldiers, and the troops that could be raised from both Sunni and Maronite contingents, it should be possible to at least force the Hezbollah groups to organized resistance.  From there, a steady conquest could grind them down.

Judge:  Zhuge, Strategic disagrees?

Zhuge:  It does.  The political system in Lebanon is a fractional and very fragile system incapable of handling the stress of such a sudden change.  Any attempt to dramatically strengthen the national government would probably result in disintegration – there is simply too much distrust.  They would see it as the gathering of an army meant to be used against them.

Judge:  And your opinion of the militias?

Zhuge:  Even worse.  Should either the Maronites or the Sunnis, or even the Druze, attempt to reform large standing militias, it will probably spark an arms race that will destroy the nation.  Remember that Lebanon just suffered a tremendous civil war that essentially accomplished nothing.  The chances of a rearmed constellation of militias being able to unite without being torn apart and dragged into civil war by sectarian interests can be held at consistently less than ten percent.

Judge:  Tactical, do you have a rebuttle for this?

Wellington: <shrugs> Although not quite as pessimistic, we do agree with our colleagues in Strategic.  We were asked if it was possible, not if it was likely.

Judge: I see.

Grant: <snorting> Not that any of that really matters.  The point is, if they don’t control Hezbollah, either because they can’t, or they won’t, then someone else has to.  You can’t let them go on bombing Israel forever.

Judge:  So your argument is that the Beirut government’s claim to the nation of Lebanon is essentially invalidated by their inability to impose any control, and is hence illegitimate?

Grant:  Yup.

Judge: <banging on his gavel to prevent another outbreak> Is there a legal precedent that covers this?  Is this justified in any manner?

Lincoln:  Answering for legal at the moment, legal precedents are…confused.  Although territorial claims were once accepted with no actual presence, as in the Tordesillas line, recently the ownership of land has fallen to the actual situation local to the ground.  Recent applications of the doctrine of uncertain control have been mixed to say the least.

Judge:  In other words, you aren’t sure.

Lincoln:  No, I’m not.

Judge: <sighing> Very well.  Accepting this argument for the moment-

FDR: Objection!

Judge: Overruled!  And no, I don’t want to hear it.  General Grant was still in the middle of his statement.

Grant:  Thank you.  Furthermore, this entire exercise is meant as a warning to Syria, who’s supplying Hezbollah with their heavy weapons.  If Syria continues to use the arm of Hezbollah to strike at Israel, it can expect that arm to be cut off.  Israel needs to show Syria that they mean business, and that means that whenever Hezbollah gets too big for its britches, hitting them where it hurts.  If they can just get away with this forever, sooner or later Syria’s going to start making things worse.  Lots worse.

FDR:  Then why not invade Syria instead?

Grant:  Because it was damn Hezbollah who fired the rockets!

Judge: Enough gentlemen.  Does this conclude the Aggressor’s statement?

Grant:  It does.

Judge:  Very well then.  Mr. Roosevelt?

FDR:  Thank you, your honor.  I am now going to rebut General Grant’s largely specious arguments.  First, I will point out that despite the intent of striking at Hezbollah, the damage done to that organization has been surprisingly minimal-

Grant:  They sure have less rockets than they used to.

FDR: Mostly because they landed on Israeli cities!  Most of the Lebanese casualties have been civilians, and strikes on weapons caches have had minimal effect.

Grant: Prove it!

Judge:  Do we have any records of this?  Librarians?

 

In the back of the room, in the galley of observers, one of the fictional and non-human observers begins jumping up and down.

 

Librarian: Oook ook ooook oook ook ooook-

Judge: <sigh> Translator!

HK-47: Translation: The items requested do not appear to be public knowledge.  It is impossible to verify any claims as a result.  Suggestion: Maybe if I blast him he will provide more information.

Judge:  Enough HK.  Very well, we have no information regarding the effectiveness of the strikes on Hezbollah weapons caches.  Does tactical have anything to say regarding this?

Wellington:  It is possible that the IDF has destroyed as much as thirty to forty percent of the cached weapons in the possession of Hezbollah, depending upon the actual storage methods.  However, we find it more likely that the majority are either hidden, or are currently safeguarded.  Although most of the heavy rockets are likely to be destroyed, it is unlikely that all the smaller weapons will be found.

FDR: And those heavy rockets will be replaced by the Syrians within weeks.

Grant: Not if Syria gets the fear of God put into them.

FDR: They aren’t the ones bleeding.  Lebanon is.  It costs Syria almost nothing to give Hezbollah those weapons.  They will be re-armed a month after Israel leaves.

Judge: Tactical, can you confirm?

Wellington: We can neither confirm nor deny.

Judge: Strategic?

Zhuge Liang:  We believe that Mr. Roosevelt is correct, and that Syria will adopt the low-cost solution of distracting their enemy by supplying Hezbollah with access to rockets.  Unless Israel causes high levels of damage to the Hezbollah infrastructure, the conflict will continue.

Grant:  Which is why Israel needs to blast the Hezbollah leadership.

FDR:  Which brings me to my second point; Israel’s campaign to destroy the infrastructure of Hezbollah has been woefully misguided.  They have hit Hezbollah command facilities without managing to cripple Hezbollah operations.  What they have done is to destroy critical components of the Lebanese infrastructure, leaving thousands without power and water, stranded in war zones without means of escape.  Instead of crippling Hezbollah, they have succeeded in crippling the people of this nation.

Grant:  Hezbollah uses those facilities too, you know.

FDR:  This does not justify their destruction.  You are killing hundreds of people without accomplishing anything except for making the lives of the citizens miserable and creating a groundswell of public support for Hezbollah.  You are creating your own enemies!

Grant:  They weren’t my allies before!  Better to have them afraid than apathetic!

FDR: They aren’t afraid!  They do not fear you!  They hate you!  Anger is stronger than whatever fear you put into them!

Judge: Some order here gentlemen.  Mr. Roosevelt, you are saying that the humanitarian toll of Israel’s raids is not only too great to merit their justification, but that the end result will be a stronger Hezbollah.

FDR:  Yes I am.  I also think that this deliberate wave of attacks on the civilian infrastructure of an uninvolved populace is indefensible-

Grant:  Israel has a responsibility to protect her own citizens by depriving her enemies of every resource that they use to make war.  If that includes cutting power and water in Lebanon, than that’s what it includes.  They aren’t elected to take care of the Lebanese, they’re elected to take care of the Israelis.  For them, better that a hundred Lebanese die than one Israeli!

FDR:  Defense does not excuse atrocity!  We have a greater responsibility than the one we hold to the emotions of our electorate, one to the global society of mankind-

Sherman: A society that cannot exist if you’re going to let thugs like this bomb other countries without retaliation!

Zhuge: And now your retaliation only serves to kill the innocent and turn them against you, to bring chaos to your borders, and pave your future in blood.  Is it better to let them bomb in futility, or to swell their numbers into an army.  The more innocents you involve-

Sherman: Those who tolerate evil cannot be themselves innocent!

Zhuge: Precisely!  And we cannot tolerate these wanton attacks!

Judge:<shouting> Enough of this!  Strategic, Tactical, can you propose alternate solutions?

 

Another Chinese man stands up, this one dressed in red and gold silks, with a long, elegant mustache.

 

Judge:  Yes, the honored Sun Tzu.

Sun Tzu:  The obvious solution, from both perspectives, is to launch a limited offensive against those portions of the nation controlled by Hezbollah, the southern frontier.  This solution may be acceptable, and even applauded, by the rest of the inhabitants of Lebanon because it reduces the power of the Hezbollah block without causing damage to the rest of the nation.

Judge:  All right, we’ve heard from the Asian block on this.  General Eisenhower, do you agree?

Ike:  Normally I oppose limited action, but in this case I’ll make an exception.  If the purpose of this war is to go after Hezbollah, you’ve got to fight them where they are, not where they aren’t.

Judge:  Does Tactical object?

Wellington: No.

Voice: Yes.

Judge: Ah, I wondered when you would get involved General Patton.  You have something to say.

Patton:  Damn right, and you all better listen.  You might think that a limited offensive into Lebanon might work, but that’s just because you aren’t thinking.  Hezbollah isn’t crazy enough to fight with Israel.  They’ll just run all the way to Beirut and take their equipment with them.  Once the Israelis leave, they’ll be shelled again in a month.

Ike:  And if they don’t leave?

Patton: Damnit Ike, then Hezbollah will just shell them from Beirut.  You can’t just force Hezbollah to move north.  You’ve got to cut them off, destroy their support facilities and routes of escape, and then crush them.

Sun Tzu:  Even if those support centers are in civilian population centers?  Even if they end up getting more and more people to support, and possibly join, Hezbollah?

Patton:  It’s a risk you have to take, but you can’t let the shelling continue.

Sun Tzu: Maybe they’ll retreat all the way to Turkey then.  Why don’t you start bombing Turkey?

Patton:  That’s completely different and you know it.

 

A man in a turban, wearing a sword, stands up in the gallery.

 

Saladin:  There is no difference.  You are blundering where you are not wanted, attacking those who are not involved and driving them to your enemy’s cause?  What manner of war is this?

Patton: <pointing> Of course he’s siding with them.  He’s a fucking Arab!

Saladin: <red-faced> I’m not an Arab!  I’m a Kurd you ignorant baboon!

Patton:  <sputtering> Why you-

Judge: <sighing> Oh gods, someone pull those two apart.

 

A thin, nerdy-looking scientist clambers down from the observers gallery and edges over to try and separate Patton and Saladin, who are now screaming nose-to-nose with each other.

 

Grant:  Regardless, General Patton has a good point.  Why bother to occupy part of a country if all it’s going to do is force Hezbollah to check into a hotel in Beirut?  Why not finish the job?

FDR:  Because you are not going to finish the job.  Even if you do this you may hurt them today, but strengthen them tomorrow.  Only through political action can you possibly disband Hezbollah-

 

A large man with a mustache in an old-style suit stands up in the back, brandishing his fist.

 

T. Roosevelt: And you can’t even begin to enter negotiation except from a position of strength.  You have to show that you can use the stick.

Sun Tzu:  If negotiation may only be done from strength, then one side will always decline.

T. Roosevelt: Then it’s better to be in the stronger position than the weaker one.

 

In the background, Patton grows irritated with the nerdy man trying to separate him and Saladin.  In a rage, he punches the man in the face.  There is the sound of ripping cloth.

 

Judge: Oh Gods,

Hulk:  Why puny man hit Hulk?  Now Hulk hit puny man.

Patton: Er…he did it.

 

Meanwhile…

 

T. Roosevelt:  If they think you’re weak, there’s no way they’ll let up.

FDR:  There are better ways to persuade them then making them strong.

Grant:  You don’t think people won’t flock to them if they can bomb Israel at will?

Zhuge Liang:  They can be neutralized politically and militarily without involving all this bloodshed.  It just takes time.

Sherman:  And time costs the lives of Israeli citizens.  I can’t blame them for wanting to clean up this damn mess.

 

At this point, Gen. Sherman is concussed by the flying body of Gen. Patton.  FDR chuckles, and is promptly slugged by Gen. Grant, who is smashed over the head with a chair by Sun Tzu.  General mayhem ensues.

 

Judge:  Order!  ORDER! <Throws gavel>  The hell with this.  Riot in progress on the arbitration deck.  Riot in progress!

 

Swarms of ninjas, wizards, and other heavily armed types appear in the room to pull the combatants apart.  More mayhem ensues.

 

Judge:  I hate my life.

This is probably why girls avoid me.